THE START OF THE SEASON – OVERNIGHT:  In the political world, the "season" starts Tuesday, the day after Labor Day.  We'll see a quickening of the pace, and serious planning for the 2022 midterms.  We'll see issues starting to emerge.

Conventional wisdom tells us that the Afghanistan disaster will fade away because voters don't vote on foreign policy.  I reject that.  In normal times it is true that the economy dominates all in political maneuvering.  But these are not normal times.  We can almost feel the power of the political vacuum cleaner sucking us back to south Asia, whether we want to be there or not.  I would not be surprised if we're going into the midst of a foreign-policy that that will engulf our political future.  From The Hill: 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said he believed it was "likely" that conditions for a future civil war could develop in Afghanistan following the U.S. troop withdrawal.

The general also stated that civil war in the region could lead to the resurgence of groups like al Qaeda and ISIS, among others. 

During an interview with Fox News correspondent Jennifer Griffin in Ramstein, Germany, that aired on Saturday, the reporter asked Milley if the U.S. was safer today since the country had withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan.

“Well you know this is something that I've thought a lot about. And I personally think that my military estimate is is that the conditions are likely to develop of a civil war. I don't know if the Taliban is gonna be able to consolidate power and establish governance - they may be, maybe not,” Milley told Griffin.

“But I think there's at least a very good probability of a broader civil war, and that will then in turn lead to conditions that could in fact, lead to reconstitution of al Qaeda or a growth of ISIS or other myriad of terrorist groups,” Milley added, who noted that officials do not yet know for sure the fate of Afghanistan. 

Milley noted that it would be a “very difficult policy choice” when asked if he could envision a situation in which U.S. troops would have to return to Afghanistan.

“I wouldn't say yes or no to anything actually. I think those are, it's too early to say anything like that at this point,” Milley said, adding that they needed to continue to monitor the intelligence situation. 

The general's comments came after a chaotic August, in which the international community watched the rapid deterioration of the Afghan government at the hands of the Taliban. The insurgent group consolidated power in a matter of days, and on Aug. 15 took the capital city of Kabul. 

The U.S. withdrew its troops on Aug. 31, marking an end to a 20-year conflict that was sparked by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on American soil. 

COMMENT:  Trotsky wrote:  "You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you."  Please remember that.  This nation's destiny can be influenced by factors beyond our borders, and beyond our control.  The next year, leading up to the 2022 elections, will be a year of tremendous uncertainty, with life itself on the line.  What happens if the terror groups based in Afghanistan strike us again?   Many political consultants will be up nights thinking about just that.

September 4, 2021